Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
