Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the words were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.
In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against a leader he would later replace.
The Shift in Position & Closed Debates
In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if polling evidence indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.
A Lid That Rattles on the EU
However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. And, if Europe is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid which was firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen again.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.
Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains measured in fractions of a percent.
Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas
Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing young people can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.
The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.
While Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts
However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water again cautioning that rejoining a European customs area could undermine the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his government.
Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.
- Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement is now much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
- Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain than in proving that Brexit does not work.
- Lastly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.
A Bizarre Document & Geopolitical Considerations
This strange and concerning document claims Europe faces cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It includes a single mention of the UK, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of concluding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Succession Chatter and The Echo of 2018
All of which brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an effort to preserve the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is among a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.
Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Clear Risk & A Prudent Memory
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.
It would be wise for Starmer to remember the effect just a few words had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
